Reporting each exited position here helps keep me focused on the fundamentals and eliminate the noise of daily/weekly overall account fluctuations. Below are the gains/losses of my closed positions initiated since end of November 2024. Three positions rolled over into this period from the last.

Last update: December 20, 2024

Trial/FDA-Dependent-Trades, small allocations of 1.16% portfolio weight each for 13.92% of portfolio combined. Started with 12 companies. Have added since and have rotated out of into long-term holdings as well as more catalyst driven ones. Currently holding 7 here.

Return from these exists thus far cummulatively stands at +11.7% which is not at all worth my time/efforts. I’ll be refining this weight’s selection criteria in time.

  • Received FDA approval and announced around 11PM yesterday evening. There is a lot of room here still but the company needs funding for launch and trials. They should raise that today. I will see what that looks like and look to reenter.

  • Candel reported results from their Phase 3 trial in prostate cancer under SPA with the FDA. All good. p value .01 and some change. The Phase 2 ran concurrently to test monotherapy however failed. That is unlikely to matter to the FDA. There is some question about the company’s interpretation/analysis of their previous Phase 2 data in NCSLC though by investors given inclusion/exlusion criteria in the data. And they have about 15M in cash and should be raising several hundreds of millions on this data. Wait and see.

    Post sale notes: company raised only 80M at below market pps on the day. And is not trading well under that pps. Management poor execution here, should have raised a lot more money months ago on the NSCLC spree. That said, this Phase 3 for prostate cancer is under SPA. Keeping watch for some optimal small play.

  • Nurix shared results this morning of a Phase 1a/1b study in chronic lymphocytic leukemia showing durable responses. 1.6B market cap is a bit rich for me in so early a stage. Expected modest return.

    Post sale notes: expecting to trade flat for the forseeable.

  • Reviva has results for their OLE study in schizophrenia due any day in December. There is no news today, very heavy volume, and the pps was up 100% at one point on multiple trading halts due to volatility. I recall expecting a great deal more out of this stock on the first Phase 3 results that were mostly positive. Counting my blessings and very happy with a gain like this especially given I’ve held only a few days and there is zero news to warrant this move.

    Post-sale notes: Company raised funds after results with common warrants doubling the dilution. Stock is chopy on it. I’m unlikely to care about this until they’re closer to end of the second Phase 3. I keep thinking big pharma is just not interested here given the organic structure of compound is extremely similar to another drug. That makes all the difference to results but…?

  • Positive result but in atopic dermatitis but it’s early so this is sell the news and impatience on everyone’s part, including mine clearly given this is part of a trial result dependent bucket. I feel pretty strongly this morning I (may)/am going to get rid of this whole part of the portfolio going forward.

    Nevertheles, I will revisit Corvus in time. I just may not touch results as much in the future or look for strong companies where I am looking for/hoping even for positive results that drop it so I can buy more. I would do that with MDNAF for example but I have much stronger conviction there.

  • Biomea reported statistically significant results in all arms of the trial and overall for patients who were only able to be dosed to 80% given the clinical hold placed by the FDA due to AE’s that were later determined unrelated to study drug.

    Lesson this morning is that stat sig does not mean clinically relevant. The results indicate there is a use for this drug but it is minimal given the impact of the obesity drugs on diabetes population.

    Biomea is dead to me now. I don’t see this recovering.

  • Larimar reported results in FA this morning that show marker improvement at current dose but no clinical improvement yet. Increasing dose. Confiming Phase 3 confirmatory on track and NDA submission planned for 2H 2025. AE’s occured and may/may not be related to study drug. May not matter in the long run if they are. Today casts some doubt for me but is likely overdone. A peer is adding. I’m going to wait for next year sometime, see how much this sell off on confusion impacts pps long term.

    Post sale notes: This is the only drug that makes a dent in increasing frataxin. That is likely enough for the FDA. I’m going to follow closer for another setup that resonates.

  • OnKure announced Phase 1a data, the indication is for the most common oncogene in cancer mutations. Data is mixed. So far biomarkers are showing improvement above preclinical models; however, there has been no objective response (ORR). The Phase 1b moving forward will not have results until 2H 2025. I’m unlikely to reenter here until the company shows OR’s.

  • CervoMed announced Phase 2b binary readout this morning that failed on all endpoints. Biomarkers did not even improve. The science was there. I expect the company will flounder for some time now as they wait for the full data and analyze it to determine where they may have gone wrong with the treatment, protocol, patient selection criteria, no one knows. Risky play given the space. Small allocation. Ok to lose a couple thousand for the opportunity to make ten. Just not all the time.