Below are closed positions with gains/losses greater than 5% initiated since April 2024 and closed before near the end of November 2024.
I decided to have a fresh slate in the respective tab given more available funds. There could be variances given the change so better to have fresh data set.
Last update: September 26, 2024. Three current holdings will transfer into the next period beginning December 2024.
-
Up more today on delay in lawsuit with CMS. Earnings end of October. Keeping a close eye.
-
Tarsus has early stage assets but it's their approved drug and market execution that intersted me. Most likely I will be coming back to Tarsus in short order for more long term holding. There is a rare opportunity this morning to take advantage of, the results of which I should be posting soonish.
-
Day One's first approved indication and recently showed a strong quarter. Phase 3 in front line enrolling in over 100 sites. Company still undervalued. Selling to pay some bills.
-
Sales results for "X" exceptional and strong for "I". Congressional overhang keeping stock depressed. Down day yesterday for the market wearing off. Still holding a position. Moving some money into another company.
-
Round 2. Phase 3 announced today with strong results. Happy and want something else at the moment.
-
Humacyte has a PDUFA date of August 10 for which they will almost certainly get approval for their Human Acelluar Vessel (HAV) to serve the vascular injury market.
-
This was the fluke occurance given confusion in the market on competitor drug results I sold Medicenna to buy. BridgeBio has better efficacy and the complete data is still not yet known on competitor's drug. Definitely still has room to run here.
-
AM news is causing confusion regarding company's decision not to pursue inclusion in payment bundles for kidney drugs in Medicare plans. Some feel this could limit revenue but it's largely a non-issue. A bill before congress with large support will bolster company revenues for the full extent of company's patent exclusivity period. It should be passed anytime in the next three quarters. Scripts are largely known for the two approved drugs. There is plenty of support from private insurance as is. in short, the story is largely unchanged. I'll look for another setup.
-
Phase 1 in combination with Keytruda with next data out in September at a conference. I sold to buy a fluke/rare opportunity given short term market confusion. Should be posting results of that soonish.
-
Sarepta received the much anticipated label expansion for a larger patient population than expected by most. Congrats to all DMD patient families for the hope they now have. Feels good to be a tiny part of this today.
-
Cardiol has a proprietarty CBD formulation being tested in PH 2 Pericarditis. Results positive. Stock down on the positive news perhaps given run up on expectations and perhaps on next catalyst date being squishy right now. Will follow and test again later in the year.
-
Larimar has recently received a lift of the FDA clinical hold, was chosen to the FDA’s START program, and has pivotal result near the end of the year I believe that are likely to be positive. I will continue to follow.
-
Nickel mine with massive deposit discoveries looking to partner with upstream.
-
Phase 1 combo trial with Keytruda. Next data in September.
-
Huge deal to commerciaize and develop vaccines for covid and covid/flu combo. I traded quickly as I thought there wasn’t enough value given yet to the deal which takes the past worries out of the equation for the company. This trade was not how I would normally trade today but the discrepancy was too great to ignore and after receiving confirmation from peers I allocated an appropriate level of risk.
-
Two drugs on the market, both expected to be blockbuster sellers. “X” just had first full quarter and I think sales came in higher than expected. That should continue. “I” was mostly flat Q over Q but the company is doubling the sales force which I believe will be in full by the end of Q2. Keeping a close watch.
-
Still very solid science and results. I sold to buy something else for now.
Post sale: about a month after this trade, the company posted underwhelming results for broad indication though it will continue to differientiate in at least one cancer type. Stock down. Good learning opportunity. I would wait for next setup after market fully digests this new information.
-
Still very solid science and results. I sold to buy something else for now.
Post sale: Stock continues to trade in band, data release timeframe uncertain given PFS/OS will need to be reached. Fully enrolled. Phase 2 strong. Huge Gilead ownership and potential buyout in my mind. Still worth following for setup.
-
Still solid. I sold on second thought. I’d like to see a funding round.
Post sale: The funding round came a couple months after closing this position. The terms are not favorable in my mind and speak to a potential lack of either strength from management or potentially interest from funds given it was a blanket public offering with no institutional buy-in reported in the PR. I'm unlikely to revisit this unless the story changes significantly.
Closed positions with gain/loss under 5%:
-
Just moving money around. Not a change of mind. Holding ARDX. Earnings today AH's.
-
I don't have a strong enough conviction to hold through earnings. Sometimes the level thereof changes before/after holding a company. Not a bad choice. My conviction is just higher elsewhere. Some issues for me are patent exclusivity expiration upcoming, uncertainty around DMD drug launch and low pricing.
-
-
Savara will be the next standard of care in aPAP. Recent results did not get rewarded by the market. It is still a fine time to buy but I realize I'm not in the know here as much as other higher conviction companies for me. This is likely a good buy and hold all through until completing BLA submission in 1H2025 and through to potential approval. That could be 1H2026. But the length of time until and the lack of any known drivers until then are also reasons for me here. They'll burn some money and continue to have to raise funds. I have purchased more of two other current holdings with the proceeds instead that are better aligned for me.
Otherwise, I don't think this was a bad choice.
-
-