I put EVERYTHIiNG into a binary event for ph 2b data. I thought if I studied the science it would be fun, and it would lower the risk. I was wrong. I had no control. I was already going to start over with trades on this page (hence the copy), now I’m starting over with the chart as well).

Keeping the history here for lesson though I’m tempted to clear it so I appear to be a more consstent success. HA! But I haven’t had a consistent stategy so how could I even approach consistency in results? I am currently holding longer term for catalysts in Biotchnoilogy. It is time to put my BS in Biology to some real use :-)

See last post. In an effort to make up some of the losses I did the exact same thing again here. This is possibly still a great opportunity but I need to take a break and rethink my process for buying and selling again. Like running my trades past my partner as I once thought necessary and was doing for a bit. ~1/31/24.

The last two days I have been making pretty crappy trading decisions. I’m thinking fast but not fast and slow. So I haven’t slowed down long enough to ask all the questions I should. I’ve been afraid of loosing opportunity (FOMO) and afraid of holding on to something that could loose value. This kind of emotional trading results in buying high, selling low, rinse and repeat, etc. Need to be clear with myself. It’s painful to post this trade here now.

That said, I’ll certainly be watching Iterum. There is great opportunity here assuming the company can work out their financing situation. ~1/31/24.

Fisker designs and markets EV’s. This was a small position. I will wait until I am more confident to hold again and buy more. ~1/26/24.

DocGo provides healhcare and other services. Recenly the stock was hit by uncertainty surounding one of their contracts and later a short report. ~1/26/24.

Sagimet annouced results of Phase 2b in NASH. Immediately after they announced an offering. The offer price came in way under where I expected it to. Keeping an eye on it. ~1/26/24.

I’m not indicating what stock this is becuse it is an old trade which does not conform to the curent strategies and which was made long before keeping track here. It feels irrelevant. Again this is an OTC stock with very light volume so even small trades can have an outsized impact. This entry will be the last and I have no more shares in this company or any other similar stock. ~1/26/24.

Vera announced results of Phase 2b yesterday. They’re currently in a Ph 3 registrational trial which would have results by 1Q 2025 and perhaps gain approval late 2025/early 2026. This is for patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy. ~1/26/24.

Sigma is going to be tightly watched as they’re in discussions to be acquired and are currently working on dual listing in Singapore exclusively for the purpose. The greenet probaby lithium producer and still being valued as a developer. I jumped to hopefully take advantage of something else in the short(er) term. ~1/22/24.

Spectral AI has just entered phase 3 for a next gen wound healing scanner device. The trial is almost if not entirely funded by the US Govt under BARDA and other programs I believe. The company estimates this is an 11B market. This was a large % loss but a small positiion. I want to follow for a bit more and learn how the stock trades. So far it is wild. Up big right after I bought, down the following few days. The day I sold it was down 4% compared to the previous, then shot as high as +18%, ended the day up 14% and after hours went as high as +40% only to close the next day only up 2%. So maybe this is the time here really and it was these first few days after beginning the trial that were wacky. The market also likely wants to see the company raise funds first though it’s hard to tell when they would give the gov’t funding. ~1/22/24.

NovoCure will remain on my watchlst. They have catalysts in 2024 including data reads from two trials that will get them closwer to approval for expanding into two more indications. Sales are down some but I think there is still massive potential here. ~ 1/22/24.

PureCycle is making recycled PP at a single facility which has experienced lots of setbacks. This morning they announced positive updates but it has yet to be seen if they’ll be able to meet bondholder requirements in time. Watching. ~1/16/24.

Xos makes speciality EV vehicles for a number of use cases. Recently they announced a unique financing transaction. ~1/16/24.

Ardelyx has two approved blockbuster potential drugs, one gaining momentum, one just beginning commercialization. ~ 1/16/24.

I am leaving this company unnamed given it does not conform to my current trading standards and was purchased long before I began tracking my trades here. It is an OTC stock that is now extremely thinly traded. I had a large position at one time and now to sell almost any of it impacts the pps significantly. I am exiting in 100,000 block units over time. And this week sold some 1.1 million shares for pennies on the dollar. This is at least one, if not the main reason for, the drop in my portfolio this week. I still own some 700,000 shares and will continue to sell as long as the pps does not drop below a certain threshold. It will ultimately not be a lot of money when I’m finished, but it will free me up from being impacted by it’s radical ups and downs and allow me the freedom to trade in what I want to now.

Irrational exuberance here on my part. This is an M&A target but I’ve no good way to assess the value right now. While it could be a good bit more, I simply hoped it would continue to increase in pps after I purchased and my conviction is not strong enough to warrant holding on rumors of an imminent buyout. I take my loss. Will I learn my lesson? ~ 1/10/24.

NGM reported positive results today in a phase 1b and previously a large shareholder expressed interest in taking the company private. ~ 1/9/24.

QuantumScape is developing solid state batteries for the consumer EV industry. Testing with VW is going very well. ~ 1/4/24.

enVVeno is in Phase 3 with results due in the second quarter 2024 for medical device for surgical implant to treat venous disorder in the legs. Keeping a close eye still. ~ 1/3/24.

Previously described. Today’s date: 1/2/2024.

Previously described in another transaction. ~1/2/2024.

This is my second closed trade for Glycomimetics. We continue to keep a close eye on them. ~12/20/23

Second round with iRobot. I think there is still a lot of potential though not exactly arbitrage. There is to me a high liklihood Amazon will get approval and/or will win in court against the FTC. However, the FTC is now attempting to reverse a merger that has already closed between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard by way of appeal in the court system. ~ 12/7/23.

I was a bit mifed at second guessing myself yesterday and returned here. Given the quick increase in pps after purchasing and an uncertainty over timing of partnership discussions/announcements or deal structure and global markets, I decided to sell. That said, I do expect a partnership announcement before the end of Q2 at the latest in 2024 with pre-IND Ph 3 disucssions with the FDA to follow. ~ 12/6/23.

Sera Prognostics announced today that the data safety monitoring board for their trial (PRIME) of PreTRM be halted due to efficacy. This is likely about one full year at least earlier than expected for this trial to come to a close. PreTRM is a test to determine risk of preterm birth for pregnant women. It is already being sold and I believe the company needs additional data to show the community it should be more widely adopted. I’ll continue to follow given the rest of their pipeline is of interest as well, more so in fact. ~ 12/6/23.

Altimune is developing a GLP1 agonist for weight loss management of patients without diabetes. The phase 2 results are all positive and the company desires to partner before entering the next phase (ph 3) portion of development. This trade was likely a solid one but I am personally not centered right now as needed and will be stepping back for a bit to find it again.

Given this and another loss today, I recognize that a step back is needed to revaluate methods and implement needed changes. Very simply, I think at minimum a conversation with my partner is required before entering trades in order to slow down and check my thoughts. Mainly, I want to invite the Observer Effect.

In addition, I am committing to meditation of 20 minutes minimum and/or piano practice daily and will track this success/failure (did, did not do) daily.

~ 12/5/23

NeuroSense is developing a therapy for ALS. This was a high risk trade. Even though the results are all positive, they’re not statistically signifincant. And though the trial was not geared to show stat sig, the market punished it.

Given this and another loss today, I recognize that a step back is needed to revaluate methods and implement needed changes. Very simply, I think at minimum a conversation with my partner is required before entering trades in order to slow down and check my thoughts. The Observer Effect.

~ 12/5/23

Glycomimetics is going to report results in their registrational phase iii before the end of the 2Q 2024. Or before if the number of required events are reached ahead of time. They have a second phase iii being run by the NCI. Results from that trial could be reported any day. ~ 12/4/23.

SpringWorks recently recieved FDA approval on the only treatment for desmoid tumors and has another ph 2 registrational trial with results coming soon. ~ 12/4/23.

Achieve is a clinical stage biopharma company developing a smoking cessation drug for combustible and vaping cessation. They’re wrapping Phase 3 trials now with final publications on those early 2024 which will inform NDA and partnership path forward. ~ 12/1/2023.

Farfetch is an online retailer for high end luxury mega expensive clothing. There is a lot of drama and uncertainty surrounding the company’s future. We think it possible the company will be taken private by the founder and CEO (with help). But there are numerous risks still. We will keep an eye on Farfetch as things continue to play out. ~ 12/1/2023.

Sigma Lithium is the second most profitable lithium concentrate producer, has recently moved from development to production with strong off take agreements, and is a likely a takeover target in the near term.

Amazon has been in talks to acquire iRobot for some time. This week a report indicated the EU antitrust authorities were likely to approve the deal. This was intended as a short term play given the difference between purchase price and current price. That said, there are still numerous next steps, results of which remain unknown. ~ 11/27/2023.

ITCI is in a sweet spot with near term catalyst. Ph III data in MDD. The company is performing well in approved indications of Schizo and BP. Keeping a close eye. Sold to free up funds. ~ 11/24/2023.

Reviva Pharma is developing a molecule to address multiple mental health disorders all in large multibillion dollar markets. To start, Schizophrenia, for which the company has successfully completed one Phase III trial and will begin another shortly. We will continue to follow Reviva’s progress. ~ 11/17/2023.